The recent movement in Bitcoin’s price after the halving event has left many investors uncertain. Despite a brief surge, the crypto failed to maintain a price above $65,000. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $62,105, showing a 2.96% decrease in the past 24 hours and a 6.14% decrease over the last seven days.
A CryptoQuant analyst pointed out that Bitcoin’s Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is still indicating bullish sentiment. This might suggest a potential reversal towards a bullish momentum for Bitcoin’s price. However, there are concerns that the price might dip further below $62,000, indicating a new monthly low.
An analysis by Phi Deltalytics from CryptoQuant highlighted the indecisiveness in Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the short term. This analysis was based on the SOPR ratio, which measures the profit ratio of spent outputs in Bitcoin transactions. The short-term SOPR was found to be indecisive, while the adjusted SOPR continued to show a bullish trend.
Impact on Holders
The discrepancy between the short-term and adjusted SOPR ratios suggests that many short-term holders are currently trading Bitcoin at a loss. Long-term holders, on the other hand, seem to be realizing greater profits, as indicated by the long-term SOPR to short-term SOPR ratio moving in favor of long-term holders. This disparity hints at the stalling of upward momentum and some long-term holders cashing out their holdings.
Potential Bearish Shift
Phi Deltalytics warned that if the adjusted SOPR turns bearish, it could signal a rapid downward shift in Bitcoin’s price. The persistent bullish sentiment in the adjusted SOPR, despite fluctuating short-term trends, indicates the possibility of a sudden price drop once the aSOPR trajectory changes.
Market Cycle Peak
Bitcoin’s price has been struggling to break above $74,000 and has been ranging between $60,000 to $70,000 recently. Some analysts speculate that Bitcoin may have reached its peak in the current market cycle. However, only time will reveal the true trajectory of Bitcoin’s price in the coming months, especially after the recent halving event.
The uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price movement post-halving event highlights the challenges faced by both short-term and long-term holders. The conflicting signals from the SOPR ratios suggest a potential shift in market sentiment and price direction. Investors are advised to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions in such a volatile market.